Bob Krumm:

Nationwide: Going in to election day, Obama will be leading 47% to 44% with 7% undecided. McCain wins the undecided almost 5:2. Increased support from black voters in the three Ds (DC, Detroit, and the Deep South) along with gains in other reliably red states runs up Obama’s popular vote totals, but adds nothing to the electoral bottom line. The only states he turns in his favor are two very white ones (Iowa 2% black and Nevada 6% black), providing evidence against the charge of racism. But facts don’t get in the way of the story line that racism decided the race.

Final popular vote tally: Obama 49.2%, McCain 48.8%, Other 2%.

Electoral votes: Obama 244, McCain 273, Pennsylvania’s 21 TBD.

Wednesday the 5th won’t be pretty.

Vox Day (excerpts):

The first is my five-point rule. In general, if a Democrat leads by less than five points in the polls, he loses. …it looks as if McCain will not only win, but will win by a larger margin in the electoral college than George W. Bush did. Also note that during the primary voting, Obama’s exit polling was overestimated by SEVEN percent on average.

Second, I’ve been very skeptical of the polls this time around because they’re based on new and improved models that have not been hitherto used and did not work well in the primaries. Thanks to Alan Greenspan and the Black Swan Boyz, we’ve all had it driven very well home that untested new models seldom work anywhere nearly as well as advertised. These new polling models are predicated on the idea that due to the sheer wonderfulness of Barack Obama, the turnout patterns will be very different than they’ve historically been. The problem is that turnout among new voters, young voters, and Hispanic voters has actually been lagging among those voting early. It’s certainly true that voter registrations have been extraordinarily high, but it must be kept in mind that the ease with which registration can now be accomplished logically suggests that the percentage of registered voters who fail to vote will also be at an all-time high.

Third, the anxious actions of the Obama campaign belie the seemingly serene confidence of the Obama candidate. Obama’s success in building a political career has largely been based on illusion, and I think the air of calm assurance that he’s been projecting is a false one. By all rights, he should be absolutely slaughtering McCain; Hillary would probably be 20 points ahead at this point. But he isn’t, and since he hasn’t sealed the deal by now with such powerful Democratic winds at his back, it suggests that the deal is not sealable by him.

I’m not voting for either man. My considered opinion is that America would be worse off in the short term and better off in the long term with an Obama victory. But based on my observations, I am forced to conclude that despite the way things superficially appear, John McCain will win the election. The two key states to watch are New Hampshire and Virginia, with a particular emphasis on Virginia. If either of them go for McCain, you can safely conclude that it’s over in the GOP’s favor.

Will the effects of the Dot Com Bubble and Housing Bubble now be repeated with an Obama Bubble? I doubt it, but it will help me sleep easier tonight.