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Rudy as Republican or as an independent. What’s to stop him from winning?

This presidential election is really going to test the strength of the diverse Republican coalition. I think that Rudy could easilywin in the general election, and he could be a unifying political figure. BUT. He may have trouble winning the Republican primary. however, the other two main candidates at this early stage, also carry a lot of baggage, which may help Giuliani ride through on force of personality.

1. Giuliani : A supremely qualified leader with a heroic glow still emanating from 9/11. On economics and defense, he is flawless. However, he really really bugs social conservatives, for several reasons, the least of which is his very public messy divorce scandal. More importantly to social conservatives are his open support of "gay rights" and abortion. I believe that a pro-choice Republican with a soft line on gay marriage could win the nomination, but only if he very clearly explained to voters that despite his personal feelings about this issues he would not pursue any legislation in either matter (or stack the courts with activist judges) but leave these issues to be decided by the people via ballot measures or other democratic initiatives. He could effectively frame his personal liberlism inside a philosophy of conservative governance (maybe I’m just projecting my own personal preference here). But Rudy’s detractors inside conservative political circles feel like he’s already too far gone on these issues, and that he’s more of an activist than a passive supprter. Also, some think his anti-gun record in New York City will cause him trouble in NRA states. I don’t see why he can’t change on this issue by very reasonably explaining that he did what was best for New York City at the time, but as President he is in charge of the entire U.S. which has different needs in this regard. It would be a great opportunity for him to appeal to red staters: "I’m not going to be the President of New York and 49 other states. I’m going to be preident of all 50 states and treat their concerns equally, and sometimes New York doesn’t matter."

2. Romney. This is the one for social conservatives (his pro-life record is very strong) and he’s proven electable in a liberal state as Governor of Massachusetts. He’s a skyrocketing star, earning stong fans at every early campaign appearance. his problem? He’s Mormon. PRN thought this would be a trouble with religion-phobic moderates in the general election. But what surprises me is how much strong anti-Mormon sentiment there is amongst Christian conservatives. He seems to overcome this when people see him, but that persuasiveness doesn’t entirely dispell the suspicion that he may actually be the devil.

On both of these candidates, I’d like to think that none of these objections are deal-breakers, and that voters could come to their senses and embrace both candidates (I think they’d be a dynamite ticket together, but would Romney be happy as a VP? He could give Rudy cred on social issues). But maybe I’m overestimating Republican voters, or underestimating the flaws. I don’t really know the depth of Giuliani’s stake on social issues.

3. McCain. As a maverick who has a fetish for sppealling to liberal media outlets, McCain has burned many bridges in conservative circles. Despite his support on the war, he’s been rightly judged as grandstanding without substance on this torture issue, and seen as undermining Bush on small issues to the detriment of the big issue. He’s pro-life, but conservatives are deeply suspicious of his steadfastness, as he’s known to adopt liberal cuases when good press is on the line. His campaign finance reform bill has been a well-predicted disaster and is anti-free speech. He’s unpredictable, especially when cameras are around. There’s a sense that he’s a bit of a Kerry/Gore: will do anything to get the job. The plus is, he’s more charismatic and appeals to moderates. But won’t Giuliani blow him off the stage amongst that set, and Romney clobber him among conservatives?

Political circles are already deeply divided between Giuliani and Romney, which reflects a greater potential schism in the larger body of voters. I don’t think any of themwould run as independents. They’re all well-known as party loyalists. They would need to be severely alientated during the primary campaigning to consider that, and I think Giuliani, if he isn’t nominated, is in place for a very high ranking position if the Republicans win.

Thankfully, the Democrats are still in such disarray, and so committed to this losing anti-war platform, that it may not ultimately matter. If they could magically switch and hug the Republicans on defense (and mean it), I think they’d do very well.

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